1 month ago
Decision making made easy
Excellent book. Thanks to the author for writing this.
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke (Paperback)
by by DUKE ANNIE (Author) Format: Paperback
€25.03
Landed PriceGuarantee Inclusive of duties, taxes & applicable charges. No surprise fees on delivery.
Get it by Wed, Nov 18· Ships within 24 hours
1
Ships within 24 hoursFrom our India warehouse
Duties & taxes coveredNo surprise fees on delivery
Tracked worldwideDHL / FedEx priority delivery
Easy 30-day returnsRefund or replace, hassle-free
You may also like
Customers say
✨ AI-generated from reviewsCustomers find the book thought-provoking, particularly appreciating its insights on decision-making and how it forces readers to grapple with life's uncertainties. However, the content receives mixed reactions, with some finding it wonderful while others describe it as uninspiring. Moreover, the practicality and readability aspects are also mixed, with some finding it practical while others consider it basic, and some finding it interesting while others find it boring. Additionally, several customers consider it a waste of time and money.
Photos from customers
Reviews
Loved by 8 customers.
4.5
Based on 8 reviews
1 month ago
Give it a shot
You should read it ! Very good psychology book
3 months ago
Good book that teaches...
A good book that teaches everything has a probability attached to it. One must use both premortem & back casting to do predictions on the future. Comparing of multiple futuristic probabilities are compared to an analogy of a tree with trunk as pass & branches as outcomes. Overall it helps to shift thinking a little better
4 years ago
A good book on decision making with many practical decision making tools
Recommend for the folks who need to take decisions on a daily basis. Although books starts with a bit too much of drag, it gets interesting and to the point in the last two thirds.Some of the references were too US centric and makes it hard for other readers to relate too.
5 years ago
Decision making is a bet about the future, which is based on the beliefs that we have
Thinking in Bets is an interesting and a well written book on decision making. The author is a poker players and had brought to light her learnings as a poker player on decision making. As she says, while playing poker you make a number of decisions and get to know the results every few minutes. The fundamental premise that the author makes are:1. Future is uncertain.2. Taking decisions is about making bets about the future. Thinking in terms of bets is to recognise that there is uncertainity and we are making bet about a particular outcome.3. As the author says, bets reflect choice, probability, decision, risk and belief4. The outcome of decisions is a function of both skills and luck. We like to attribute success to skills and failure to luck. Though, it may not reflect the right balance between skills and luck. Outcome does not always mean that it is related to quality of decision making or to chance5. Quality of decision improved, if we are more objective about our beliefs (using experience and information)6. We are designed to believe that we read or see, even though the information may be incorrect. Whatever we experince, we believe it to be true and rarely question it.7. Once we believe something, then we tend to use new information to re-inforce our beliefs. Internet is a great example, where getting information from the same sources solidifies our beliefs.8. Acknowledging that decisions are bets based on our beliefs, getting comfortable with uncertainity and re-defining right or wrong is integral to good decision making.9. Our brains are designed to see positive self image of ourselves. It is also built to see us in competition with our peers.10. Unaided open mindedness is tough to find11. Some of the ways around are asking the question "why this may not be true instead of why this is true", believing that we do not know everything but rely on our beliefs. Thinking in bets or making bets is a good way of challenging our beliefs12. If you engage with somebody who you dis-agree with, first listen to the person you dis-agree with, establish areas where we have agreement and then engage in other areas, including callibrating our belief.13. Another way around is to think about the future. What the future would be look like and imagining that we are in the future, helps us get a better perspective on the decision that we are going to make.14. One important thing is to get away from instinctive/ emotional present and to really imagine is in the future and this way we can be more objective in our decision making.15. Similarly thinking about the future and really to take a decision now like stop loss rather then us being subject to future emotional state.16. Overconfidence can be really bad for decision making17. Hindsight makes you feel if things were destined to happen one way and take away from the uncertainity of decision making.It is in a way similar to what Taleb or Kahnemann have said in their books. A great book to read and I give it my highest recommendation.
6 years ago
Learning from poker how to bring objectivity to decision making
Thinking in Bets answers question atleast for me why poker analogies are hot favourite among entrepreneurs. The books biggest take way is how to think objectively when in decision making mode and remove biases especially towards result. The book gives simple primer which can be applied in day to day life especially if you get excited about ideas and jump into execution or lost out hand to luckNotes from bookThinking in Bets - notes- We as humans remember decisions through It results - this phenomenon is called resulting. Over the years our brain has a build these systems for survival eg rustling of leaves in bushes in past meant animal is around and being aware/going away from the place meant safety/survival.- Seeking certainty over the years have kept us alive but it doesn’t drive result in uncertain world- Author talks about brain having 2 systems - reflexive mind and deliberative mind- Reflexive mind - seems to do things rapidly and automatically, with or without conscious awareness. Every day decision making is dependent on reflexive mind- Deliberative mind - deliberates , chews over the facts- Life decisions are not chess decisions with computational possibilities but they involve uncertainties, risk, occasional deception more similar to poker- It’s okay to be unsure and accepting this will make you comfortable to seek information/variable beyond the usual. Being unsure is not a wrong answer to question- Acknowledging uncertainties is first step but incorporating uncertainty in the way we think bring more open mindedness eg changing our answer From 58% to 40% May see small shift while changing from being complete right to wrong. It helps us not treat information which disagrees with us as threat- To become more objective towards outcome one needs to change habits of rewarding outcome to habit of maybe identifying your mistakes especially when you won the hand and feed it back to your learning. This takes lot more practise and is the hardest part- We can improve our decision making by being in group but it needs to be the right group, the group objective has to be to help you seek truth and require you to commit to objectivity instead of moaning bad luck, a Business which can build a company board with group members who are experienced in the direction of game being played and who challenge each other biases. More importantly author talks about its okay to disagree as dissent is equally important to have voice in potential outcome bias.- The author gives CUDOS framework for anyone looking to establish a group with goal to get objective towards outcome- Communism - You should put out all information irrespective of it being towards decision you are driving , incremental information can help get fair dissent and perspective- Universalism - treating all information at par irrespective of source , as some time source of decision can play in our bias to treat information equally- Disinterestedness - Its about avoiding bias, hint of future/outcome can again bring bias in our analysis . Eg if each decision of history can be evaluated without knowing the result, this will help us to improve our learning and again looking at things more objectively- Organized Skepticism - Having Devil’s advocate thinking towards decision which again goes back to principles of thinking in bets, its important for us to have people who bring those skepticism to decision making as it gives another critical view point and reinforce CUDOS framework-- 10-10-10 rule is a great way for us to do time travel thinking what will be impact of decision over next 10 mins, 10 days and 10 years- 2 best methods to use while doing business planning is back casting and premortem, back casting is something which amazon teams does for pitching a project by draft a positive PR on outcome and what lead to it’s success and premortem is opposite where teams are encouraged to do negative PR and predict reasons of failureOverall book sounds very meditative read as it just simplifies the way humans should remove emotion bias from decision making and stop living in past or future
Q&A
Questions? We've got answers.
FAQs
Many readers say yes: the big value is learning to think more objectively under uncertainty and notice biases. Buyers often describe the book as thought-provoking rather than purely motivational.
Buyers are split on practicality. Some call it a quiet but useful guide for everyday reasoning, while others feel the examples stay basic and want more depth before calling it highly actionable.
Most reviewers find the pacing uneven. Several mention a slow opening, while others say the book becomes more interesting and sharper in the later sections.
Several readers say newcomers may benefit more. Reviews note that the book works well as a primer, while more widely read readers sometimes find the ideas familiar.
Poker comes up because many reviews say the book explains decision-making through betting and uncertain outcomes. That analogy is central to how the author separates process quality from result quality.
English paperback format keeps it straightforward: 288 pages published by Portfolio. For edition checking, ISBN-13 is 979-8217047666 and the listed publication date is 9 December 2024.
As seen on Instagram
@the.bazaar5
theblondedesi
theblondedesi Indian 🇮🇳 snacks are daaa best 🤤🔥 If you are living in America but missing Indian snacks…. No need to worry 😉 Order your favorite snacks now at @the.bazaar5 🇮🇳😄 #india #indiansnacks #funny #indianfunny #indianamerican #desiamerican #indianinlosangeles #indiansincalifornia #indian #indianfood #america #losangeles #californiaView on Instagram
shainapatel10
shainapatel10 loved these nostalgic snacks and treats from @the.bazaar5 🇮🇳🌟🫶🏾 check out their page/bio to order some for yourself! (alternative caption: “a snack holding some snacks”) #unboxing #indiansnacks #desi #collab #sponsored #influencerView on Instagram
itsminikay
itsminikay Exciting news, guys! 🎉 Bringing a taste of home to you with Bazaar5.com! 🛍 Use code MINIB5 for a generous 20% off your purchase and dive into the largest curation of Indian goodies! From snacks to personal care, Ayurvedic wonders, and baby essentials, Bazaar5.com has got it all covered! 🌟 Never miss out on your favorites with our year-round availability and enjoy lightning-fast delivery to US, Europe and the UK in just 10 business days! 💨 Shop worry-free with secure payments and absolutely no hidden charges! Plus, score free shipping on orders over 30€ 🚚 And here’s the cherry on top - every purchase comes with a personal touch from our small, passionate team in Delhi! 💖 Bringing a taste of home to wherever you are, one Bazaar5 order at a time! #Bazaar5 #indianfood #shopwithlove #sponsored #adView on Instagram
mykitchensnapss
mykitchensnapss Feeling homesick? We got you!🫶🏻 @the.bazaar5 is giving away an Indian snack goodie box to anyone who is a fan of Indian snacks, but is living abroad! To participate in the giveaway, Follow these steps: 1. Follow @the.bazaar5 and @mykitchensnaps on Instagram. 2. Like and share this post on your story 3. Comment with your favorite Desi snacks 4. Let us know the 3 items from website you’d most like to receive in the goodie box. The winner will be announced on 27th March 2024, and will be chosen on a raffle basis ! Good luck 💗 #reelsindia #reelsinstagram #trending #trendsindia #trendingreels #internationalstudents #indianstudents #exchange #reelslovers #giveaway #holi #holifestivalView on Instagram
urbanasian
urbanasian Are you feeling homesick? Do you miss the food you grew up eating? 👀 You can now get your favorite Desi snacks at your doorstep with the help of @the.bazaar5 🫶 Add treats like namkeen or masala chips to your cart and it will arrive at your doorstep! #urbanasian #indian #southasian #snacks #foodView on Instagram